The Mask of Dimitrios by Eric Ambler
This will be discussed at the next meeting at Tricia’s on Monday April 20th at 7.30.
“Skilfully combining a searching examination of European corruption with a pulsating quest to uncover the eponymous enigma, The Mask of Dimitrios is the finest of Ambler’s seminal inter-war espionage thrillers. A cast of perfectly delineated grotesques glide through an addictive storyline saturated in moral ambiguity and faded glamour.
English crime novelist Charles Latimer is travelling in Istanbul when he makes the acquaintance of Turkish police inspector Colonel Haki. It is from him that he first hears of the mysterious Dimitrios – an infamous master criminal, long wanted by the law, whose body has just been fished out of the Bosphorus. Fascinated by the story, Latimer decides to retrace Dimitrios’ steps across Europe to gather material for a new book. But, as he gradually discovers more about his subject’s shadowy history, fascination tips over into obsession. And, in entering Dimitrios’ criminal underworld, Latimer realizes that his own life may be on the line.
‘Not Le Carre, not Deighton, not Ludlum have surpassed the intelligence, authenticity or engrossing storytelling that established The Mask of Dimitrios as the best of its kind.’ – The Times
‘If you want to experience the feel of the Continent in the 1930s, you will find few better guides’ – Robert Harris”
The book after that:
‘Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction’ by Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock (2015). Meeting to be arranged.
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER
WINNER OF THE CMI MANAGEMENT FUTURES BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD
‘A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.’ Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow
What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?
Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we’re not very good at it.
In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock’s latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.
‘The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.’ Economist
‘A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.’ Independent
‘The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.’ The Times